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Original Articles |
From the Department of Preventive Medicine, Division of Pharmacoepidemiology (W.A.R., J.R.D.), Vanderbilt University School of Medicine; the Department of Medicine, Divisions of Rheumatology (C.C., C.M.S.), Cardiology (K.T.M.), and Clinical Pharmacology K.T.M., C.M.S.), and Department of Biostatistics (P.G.A.); and Geriatric Research, Education and Clinical Center (W.A.R.), Veterans Administration Tennessee Valley Health Care System, Nashville, Tenn; Research Triangle Institute Health Solutions (C.V.L., J.C.) and Centro Español de Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica (L.A.G.R.), Barcelona, Spain.
Correspondence to Wayne A. Ray, PhD, Department of Preventive Medicine, Village at Vanderbilt, Suite 2600, 1501 21st Ave South, Nashville, TN 37212. E-mail wayne.ray{at}vanderbilt.edu
Received July 9, 2008; accepted February 12, 2009.
| Abstract |
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Methods and Results— We conducted a multisite retrospective cohort study of commonly used individual NSAIDs in Tennessee Medicaid, Saskatchewan Health, and United Kingdom General Practice Research databases. The cohort included 48566 patients recently hospitalized for myocardial infarction, revascularization, or unstable angina pectoris with more than 111000 person-years of follow-up. Naproxen users had the lowest adjusted rates of serious coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death) and serious cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction, stroke)/death from any cause, with respective incidence rate ratios (relative to NSAID nonusers) of 0.88 (95% CI, 0.66 to 1.17) and 0.91 (0.78 to 1.06). Risk did not increase with doses
1000 mg. Relative to NSAID nonusers, serious coronary heart disease risk increased with short term (<90 days) use for ibuprofen (1.67 [1.09 to 2.57]), diclofenac (1.86 [1.18 to 2.92]), celecoxib (1.37 [0.96 to 1.94]), and rofecoxib (1.46 [1.03 to 2.07]), but not for naproxen (0.88 [0.50 to 1.55]). Relative to naproxen, current users of diclofenac had increased risk of serious coronary heart disease (1.44 [0.96 to 2.15], P=0.076) and serious cardiovascular disease/death (1.52 [1.22 to 1.89], P=0.0002), and those of ibuprofen had increased risk of the latter end point (1.25 [1.02 to 1.53], P=0.032). Compared to naproxen in doses
1000 mg, serious coronary heart disease incidence rate ratios were increased for rofecoxib >25 mg (2.29 [1.24 to 4.22], P=0.008) and celecoxib >200 mg (1.61 [1.01 to 2.57], P=0.046).
Conclusions— In patients recently hospitalized for serious coronary heart disease, naproxen had better cardiovascular safety than did diclofenac, ibuprofen, and higher doses of celecoxib and rofecoxib.
Key Words: antiinflammatory agents, nonsteroidal coxib rofecoxib celecoxib naproxen diclofenac coronary disease myocardial infarction
| Introduction |
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Editorial see p 146
This question is particularly important for patients with existing serious coronary heart disease, whose baseline risk of adverse cardiovascular events is increased. However, with the exception of 2 short duration studies of parecoxib/valdecoxib,3 the placebo-controlled clinical trials have included limited numbers of patients with a recent history of cardiovascular disease. Thus, the relative cardiovascular safety of both the traditional NSAIDs and coxibs in this high-risk population is unclear, even though a substantial proportion of these patients will have musculoskeletal symptoms that often are treated with these drugs. We thus assessed the cardiovascular safety of NSAIDs in patients recently hospitalized for serious coronary heart disease in a large multi-site retrospective cohort study.
| WHAT IS KNOWN |
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| WHAT THE STUDY ADDS |
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| Methods |
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The cohort included community-dwelling persons 40 to 89 years of age hospitalized with serious coronary heart disease, defined as an acute myocardial infarction, coronary artery revascularization, or unstable angina pectoris. In Tennessee and Saskatchewan, myocardial infarctions were identified from the primary discharge diagnosis of hospitalizations with
48-hour stay (to exclude diagnostic evaluations), a definition with a positive predictive value between 92%13 and 95%14 and a sensitivity of 94%.13 In GPRD, the computerized medical records (profiles) of patients with a possible myocardial infarction were manually reviewed to identify those satisfying the adapted international standardized diagnostic criteria for acute myocardial infarction,15,16 a procedure with a positive predictive value of 96%.12 Coronary revascularization (angioplasty with/without stent and coronary artery bypass graft surgery) was identified from codes for procedures, excluding those only associated with aortic valve replacement. Other admissions for unstable angina were identified from hospital discharge diagnoses in Tennessee and Saskatchewan, using the definition of Shahi et al.17 In GPRD, a similar definition was applied by manually reviewing the profiles for potentially qualifying episodes.
Other cohort eligibility criteria sought to assure the availability of necessary study data and to exclude patients likely to have events of noncoronary etiology. During the 365 days preceding the qualifying hospital admission, cohort members had to have: enrollment in a plan with full medication information, at least one prescription or outpatient visit, and no evidence of serious coronary heart disease, serious cerebrovascular disease, cocaine use, or potentially life-threatening noncardiovascular exclusion illness (cancer excluding nonmelanomous skin cancers, HIV, renal, hepatic or respiratory failure, organ transplant).
To assure that study data accurately reflected medication changes in the hospital, follow-up began on day 45 (t0) after the qualifying admission. Thus, cohort members had to survive until t0, and, for the period between the qualifying admission and t0, they had to continue to meet study baseline eligibility criteria (except for respiratory failure, occasionally coded with myocardial infarctions), to have at least 1 prescription, and to be out of the hospital at least 15 consecutive days before t0. Follow-up continued until the first of the following dates: the end of the study, failure to satisfy the baseline eligibility criteria (with the exception of the prescription/outpatient visit criteria and renal or respiratory failure, associated with postinfarction left ventricular dysfunction), or a study end point.
Medication Exposure
Medications given outside the hospital were identified from pharmacy (Tennessee and Saskatchewan) and physician (GPRD) records, which included the prescription date, drug, quantity, dose, and days of supply (except in Saskatchewan). For NSAIDs and coxibs, these data were checked to ensure that days of supply, from which we calculated prescription duration, were consistent with drug quantity. Computerized pharmacy and physician records are an excellent source of medication data because they are not subject to information bias8 and have high concordance with patient self-report of medication use.18–20 During the study period, Tennessee had a relatively open formulary and there was no deductible or copay for prescriptions. Past experience suggests that the misclassification attributable to nonprescription NSAIDs was limited.21–24 Saskatchewan had patient cost-sharing arrangements throughout the study period, and there were restrictions on coxib use for persons <65 years of age (35% of the site cohort); an internal study reported an estimated 30% of prescriptions for celecoxib in this age group were not included in the Drug Plan database. In the United Kingdom, many patients <60 years of age had an £6.85 copay.
Each person-day of follow-up was classified according to current use of individual NSAIDs. Current use was defined as the period between the prescription date and the end of the days of supply, indeterminate use (a separate category to reduce misclassification) as that from the end of the days of supply through the subsequent 90 days, and former use the remainder of the 365 days after the end of current use. Current use of multiple NSAIDs was placed in a separate category. Duration was defined as total days of supply prescribed from the 365 days before the qualifying admission through the current follow-up day. New use was defined as that which began during study follow-up with no prior use (365 days before the qualifying admission through t0 to 1).
Preplanned analyses were conducted for the following individual NSAIDs (low/medium dose cut point): naproxen (<1000 mg), ibuprofen (
1600 mg), diclofenac (<150 mg), celecoxib (
200 mg), and rofecoxib (
25 mg), which were those most frequently prescribed in the study populations. In some analyses, data also are presented for indomethacin and valdecoxib and for other NSAIDs, considered as a group. Prescribed aspirin was not considered as an NSAID because it was most commonly prescribed in low doses for cardioprotection.
Study End Points
The primary study end point was serious coronary heart disease, defined as acute myocardial infarction or out-of-hospital death from coronary heart disease. Acute myocardial infarction was defined as for cohort entry, except that for fatal infarctions there was no minimum length of stay requirement. Deaths from coronary heart disease were defined as sudden cardiac deaths or fatal myocardial infarctions in persons not hospitalized and were identified using previously developed procedures.12,25–27
A secondary end point was the composite of serious cardiovascular disease (nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke) and death from any cause. Stroke was defined in Tennessee and Saskatchewan from hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of hemorrhagic or ischemic stroke; this procedure had a reported 86% positive predictive value.28,29 In GPRD, they were identified from manual review of profiles using a procedure that in a sample of 119 cases had a positive predictive value of 76% for ischemic strokes and 100% for hemorrhagic strokes.30 The analysis for this end point extended the definition of current use to include indeterminate use, which reduces the potential bias that could occur when patients with deteriorating health stop taking NSAIDs.
Statistical Analysis
The statistical analysis compared the adjusted incidence of end points between groups defined by NSAID use status. The relative risk was estimated with the incidence rate ratio (IRR), as calculated from Poisson regression models. This technique is efficient for large cohort studies with time-dependent covariates having many categories. In addition to NSAID use status, the models included study site, demographic characteristics (age, gender, calendar year of cohort entry) and variables reflecting comorbidity at baseline (ascertained from medical care in the 365 days preceding the qualifying hospital admission and the 45 subsequent days preceding t0) and subsequent changes during follow-up.
Baseline comorbidity included the qualifying hospital admission type, revascularization status (angioplasty/stent, coronary artery bypass grafting, none), and a cardiovascular risk score, which combined information from a large number of potential baseline risk factors (Table 1). These included prescribed medications and diagnosed disease, medical care use (frequency of inpatient admissions, emergency department visits, and outpatient encounters), a measure of compliance with drugs such as statins that are prescribed for long-term use, and other risk factors available only at individual sites.
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Time-dependent covariates were updated annually. These included time since t0, coronary revascularization procedures, hospitalization for unstable angina pectoris, and indicators of new or worsening heart failure (new diagnosis or new prescription for digoxin or a loop diuretic), which was a strong and consistent predictor of end point occurrence.
The primary reference group for calculation of the IRRs for NSAID use was nonusers of any NSAID. In most analyses, IRRs also were calculated relative to current users of naproxen because the available data suggest naproxen has the best cardiovascular safety.5–7 This analysis also should reduce bias attributable to unmeasured factors that differed between users and nonusers of NSAIDs. One analysis of NSAID dose was conducted with a reference group of naproxen in doses of 1000 mg or greater (the most commonly used dose in the cohort [>75%] and that studied in large pivotal trials of coxibs32,33).
The study was designed to include at least 3000 person years for celecoxib use, 1000 person-years of current use for the other 4 drugs of primary interest, and at least 20000 person-years of nonuse. Given an anticipated end point occurrence of between 3% and 6% per year would provide detectable (
=.05, β=.20) rate-ratios of between 1.25 to 1.35 for celecoxib and 1.4 to 1.6 for the other drugs of primary interest. All analyses were done with SAS version 9.1. All probability values are 2-sided.
The study was approved by each sites human subjects/research ethics committee. Dr Ray had full access to all of the data in the study and takes responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.
| Results |
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When cohort members were classified according to baseline use of NSAIDs (Table 2), those receiving naproxen and ibuprofen were approximately 5 years younger than were nonusers and users of the other NSAIDs. There was some variability in the gender distribution of individual NSAID users, with the proportion of males ranging from 61% for diclofenac to 45% for celecoxib. After adjusting for age and site, differences in baseline cardiovascular risk status between the groups were minor. Nonusers had a mean cardiovascular risk score of 9.5 (the population median), and the mean score varied between 9 and 10 for individual study NSAIDs. The proportions of the cohort members from the study sites varied according to baseline NSAID: 87% of naproxen users were from Tennessee, as were 70% or more of users of ibuprofen, celecoxib, and rofecoxib, whereas 53% of diclofenac users were from the United Kingdom.
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Current users of naproxen (Table 3) had the lowest adjusted rates of both serious coronary heart disease and serious cardiovascular disease/death from any cause. Relative to nonusers of any NSAID, the respective IRRs (95% CI) were 0.88 (0.66 to 1.17) and 0.91(0.78 to 1.06). When compared with current users of naproxen, current users of diclofenac had increased risk of serious coronary heart disease (1.44 [0.96 to 2.15], P=0.076) and serious cardiovascular disease/death (1.52 [1.22 to 1.89], P=0.0002) and those of ibuprofen had increased risk of the latter end point (1.25 [1.02 to 1.53], P=0.032).
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When the cohort was divided into subgroups according to important baseline cardiovascular characteristics (Table 5), the adjusted rate of serious coronary heart disease among current users of naproxen was lower than that for nonusers of any NSAID and generally lower than that for the other study drugs. There was more variability across the study sites which was statistically significant for rofecoxib (P=0.0275) but not for the other study drugs (P>0.30).
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| Discussion |
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The question of which NSAID has the best cardiovascular safety profile is particularly important for patients with existing cardiovascular disease, for whom data from lower risk populations cannot necessarily be extrapolated. First, these patients have a greater baseline absolute risk and thus small differences in relative risk may be important. Second, approximately 90% of such patients take low dose aspirin,37,38 which may interact with the NSAID. Third, either recent episodes of acute disease (eg, myocardial infarction) or disease treatment (eg, percutaneous interventions) may alter the cardiac safety of NSAIDs.
We thus studied the cardiovascular safety of individual NSAIDs in nearly 50000 patients with a recent hospitalization for serious coronary heart disease. Cardiovascular safety was best for naproxen. Relative to nonusers of any NSAIDs, current users of naproxen had IRRs of 0.88 (0.66 to 1.17) for serious coronary heart disease and 0.91 (0.78 to 1.06) for the composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from any cause. There was no evidence of increased risk for naproxen in higher doses (
1000 mg/d), with use of short duration, after the exclusion of prevalent users or among patients in the upper tertile for baseline cardiovascular risk.
In contrast, there was evidence that cardiovascular risk was increased for users of the other study NSAIDs. Relative to naproxen users, those of diclofenac, which is widely used outside of the United States and has been the reference drug in several coxib outcome trials,39,40 had 50% increased risk of the composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, or death from any cause. The increased risk was present for low/moderate doses (<150 mg/d). Ibuprofen users had 25% increased risk for this end point. When compared to high-dose naproxen use, users of higher doses of celecoxib (>200 mg/d) and rofecoxib (>25 mg/d) had increased risk of serious coronary heart disease.
Current users of diclofenac, ibuprofen, celecoxib and rofecoxib with less than 90 days cumulative duration had increased rates of serious coronary heart disease. This is in contrast to a widely publicized posthoc analysis of the APPROVe trial data, interpreted by some as suggesting no risk for use of less than 18 months duration.1 However, observational studies of rofecoxib have reported increased risk within the first month of therapy,7 and in the VICTOR trial rofecoxib patients had increased risk after a mean duration of 7.4 months. Thus, our findings add to the evidence that at least one of the mechanisms for increased cardiovascular risk is acute.
These findings are generally consistent with previous studies, most of which were not restricted to patients with serious coronary heart disease. Placebo-controlled clinical trials have demonstrated increased risk of serious cardiovascular disease for rofecoxib1,7 and celecoxib in daily doses 400 mg or greater.2,41 Meta-analyses of both clinical trials5 and observational studies6,7 suggest that naproxen does not increase cardiovascular risk, whereas diclofenac is consistently associated with increased risk in the observational studies. Ibuprofen has been associated with a trend of increased risk in the meta-analyses at doses above 1800 mg daily5–7 and with increased risk of death in recently hospitalized cardiovascular patients taking low-dose aspirin.42 In a case-crossover analysis of patients recently discharged with myocardial infarction, Gislason et al reported increased risk of reinfarction or death for diclofenac, rofecoxib, celecoxib, and ibuprofen in doses >1200 mg/d.43
A key study limitation was that follow-up began 45 days after the qualifying hospitalization admission for coronary heart disease. This was done because study databases identified medication use from filled outpatient prescriptions and lacked information on medications given in the hospital. For this reason, medication information was likely to be incomplete until patients filled/refilled prescriptions after hospital discharge (up to 34 days for the study sites). Thus, our findings cannot be generalized to the early postdischarge period, during which NSAID use may be particularly hazardous.3
Another study limitation was potentially incomplete information for several relevant variables. Although an extensive set of prognostic factors was identified from records of medical care encounters in the study databases, some important covariates (eg, left ventricular ejection fraction) were not directly available (eg, available were diagnosed/treated heart failure). NSAID exposure would be misclassified for patients who self-paid for prescriptions not authorized by their health plan as well as for those with over-the-counter use. This type of misclassification would affect cohort members classified as nonusers of NSAIDs (which would include persons with self-pay/OTC NSAID use) and could thus bias to the null. For similar reasons, misclassification of low-dose aspirin use also is likely for the North American sites, although the practical effect of such misclassification should be limited given that an estimated 90% of the cohort will be using low-dose aspirin.37,38 Hence, the comparisons with naproxen are important, as these misclassification effects should be reduced for between-NSAID comparisons.
Despite the use of data from 3 large health plans in 3 countries, sample size was limited for several comparisons. Thus, there was insufficient data for robust analysis of the less frequently used NSAIDs and power was reduced for subgroup analyses. There was substantial variation among the study sites in the patterns of use of individual NSAIDs. Naproxen and ibuprofen use came predominantly from a US low-income population and diclofenac use from Canada and the United Kingdom. Although there was no statistical evidence of effect heterogeneity across the sites (with the exception of rofecoxib), study of other populations, including more representative U.S. populations, is needed.
In conclusion, our study provides information on the cardiovascular safety of individual NSAIDs in patients recently hospitalized for serious coronary heart disease. The data suggest that in this population naproxen had better cardiovascular safety than diclofenac, ibuprofen, rofecoxib in doses >25 mg/d, and celecoxib in doses >200 mg/d.
| Acknowledgments |
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Sources of Funding
This study was funded by an unrestricted grant from Pfizer Pharmaceuticals.
Disclosures
The authors acknowledge the following potential conflicts of interest, in addition to the research funding from Pfizer. Dr Ray has consulted with plaintiffs attorneys regarding fenfluramine derivatives, rofecoxib, and intravenous bisphosphonates and with insurance companies regarding rofecoxib and hormone replacement therapy. Drs Varas-Lorenzo and Castellsague were employees of Pfizer when this research began and, since June 2007, have been employees of RTI Health Solutions, which provides consulting and research support to several pharmaceutical companies. Dr Murray has received research support from Merck Research Laboratories and speaker fees from St Jude Medical and Medtronic. Dr Stein has received consulting fees from attorneys regarding antidiabetic drugs and from Symphony Capital LLC. Dr Garcia Rodriguez has received research support from AstraZeneca, Novartis, and Pfizer.
| Footnotes |
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Related Article
Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 2009 2: 146-147.
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