National guidelines for primary prevention suggest consideration of lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease in addition to 10-year risk, but it is currently unknown how many US adults would be identified as having low short-term but high lifetime predicted risk if stepwise stratification were used.
We included 6329 cardiovascular disease-free and nonpregnant individuals ages 20 to 79 years, representing approximately 156 million US adults, from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2003 to 2004 and 2005 to 2006. We assigned 10-year and lifetime predicted risks to stratify participants into 3 groups: low 10-year (<10%)/low lifetime (<39%) predicted risk, low 10-year (<10%)/high lifetime (≥39%) predicted risk, and high 10-year (≥10%) predicted risk or diagnosed diabetes. The majority of US adults (56%, or 87 million individuals) are at low short-term but high lifetime predicted risk for cardiovascular disease. Twenty-six percent (41 million adults) are at low short-term and low lifetime predicted risk, and only 18% (28 million individuals) are at high short-term predicted risk. The addition of lifetime risk estimation to 10-year risk estimation identifies higher-risk women and younger men in particular.
Whereas 82% of US adults are at low short-term risk, two thirds of this group, or 87 million people, are at high lifetime predicted risk for cardiovascular disease. These results provide support for use of a stepwise stratification system aimed at improving risk communication, and they provide a baseline for public health efforts aimed at increasing the proportion of Americans with low short-term and low lifetime risk for cardiovascular disease.
Prior studies have identified key predictors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA), but differences exist in the magnitude of these findings. In this meta-analysis, we evaluated the strength of associations between OHCA and key factors (event witnessed by a bystander or emergency medical services [EMS], provision of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation [CPR], initial cardiac rhythm, or the return of spontaneous circulation). We also examined trends in OHCA survival over time.
An electronic search of PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, CINAHL, Cochrane DSR, DARE, ACP Journal Club, and CCTR was conducted (January 1, 1950 to August 21, 2008) for studies reporting OHCA of presumed cardiac etiology in adults. Data were extracted from 79 studies involving 142 740 patients. The pooled survival rate to hospital admission was 23.8% (95% CI, 21.1 to 26.6) and to hospital discharge was 7.6% (95% CI, 6.7 to 8.4). Stratified by baseline rates, survival to hospital discharge was more likely among those: witnessed by a bystander (6.4% to 13.5%), witnessed by EMS (4.9% to 18.2%), who received bystander CPR (3.9% to 16.1%), were found in ventricular fibrillation/ventricular tachycardia (14.8% to 23.0%), or achieved return of spontaneous circulation (15.5% to 33.6%). Although 53% (95% CI, 45.0% to 59.9%) of events were witnessed by a bystander, only 32% (95% CI, 26.7% to 37.8%) received bystander CPR. The number needed to treat to save 1 life ranged from 16 to 23 for EMS-witnessed arrests, 17 to 71 for bystander-witnessed, and 24 to 36 for those receiving bystander CPR, depending on baseline survival rates. The aggregate survival rate of OHCA (7.6%) has not significantly changed in almost 3 decades.
Overall survival from OHCA has been stable for almost 30 years, as have the strong associations between key predictors and survival. Because most OHCA events are witnessed, efforts to improve survival should focus on prompt delivery of interventions of known effectiveness by those who witness the event.
Inpatient care is the primary driver of costs for patients with heart failure. It is unclear whether recent advances in heart failure care have reduced the costs to Medicare for the care of inpatients with heart failure.
In a retrospective cohort study of 1 363 977 elderly Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized with heart failure between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2004, we examined costs to Medicare for all inpatient care, inpatient cardiovascular care, and inpatient heart failure care and the adjusted relationships between patient characteristics and costs. Among 1 363 977 Medicare beneficiaries with an index heart failure hospitalization, 901 885 (66%) had a subsequent inpatient claim during the following year. Noncardiovascular costs accounted for 57% of total inpatient costs, and costs associated with heart failure hospitalizations accounted for 15% of total inpatient costs. No significant changes occurred in total, cardiovascular, and heart failure inpatient costs over time.
The costs of inpatient care for patients with heart failure are high, but most subsequent inpatient costs are attributable to noncardiovascular and non-heart failure admissions. Further research is needed to identify predictors of costs, so that patients can be stratified according to risk, and to evaluate strategies that target primary cost drivers for patients with heart failure.