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Original Articles |
From EPICORE (P.W.F.W.), Emory University School of Medicine, and the Atlanta VAMC Epidemiology and Genetics Section, Atlanta, Ga; National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (C.J.O.D.); National Heart, Lung and Blood Institutes Framingham Heart Study (M.P., R.D.A., C.J.O.D.), Framingham Mass; Department of Mathematics (M.P., R.D.A.), Boston University, Boston, Mass; Tufts USDA Nutrition Center (P.J., J.S.), Boston, Mass.
Correspondence to Peter W. F. Wilson, MD, Suite 1 North, Emory University School of Medicine, 1256 Briarcliff Rd, and the Atlanta VAMC Epidemiology and Genetics Section, Atlanta, GA 30306. E-mail peter.wf.wilson{at}emory.edu
Received October 23, 2008; accepted October 23, 2008.
| Abstract |
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Methods and Results— Among 3006 offspring participants in the Framingham Heart Study free of CVD (mean age, 46 years at baseline), there were 129 hard coronary heart disease (CHD) events and 286 total CVD events during 12 years of follow-up. Cox regression, discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and net reclassification improvement were used to assess the role of CRP on vascular risk. In an age-adjusted model that included both sexes, the hazard ratios for new hard CHD and total CVD were significantly associated with higher CRP levels. Similar analyses according to increasing homocysteine level showed significant protective associations for hard CHD but not for total CVD. In multivariable analyses that included age, sex, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, hypertension treatment, and homocysteine, the log CRP level remained significantly related to development of hard CHD and total CVD and provided moderate improvement in the discrimination of events. The net reclassification improvement when CRP was added to traditional factors was 5.6% for total CVD (P=0.014) and 11.8% for hard CHD (P=0.009).
Conclusions— Circulating levels of CRP help to estimate risk for initial cardiovascular events and may be used most effectively in persons at intermediate risk for vascular events, offering moderate improvement in reclassification of risk.
Key Words: epidemiology inflammation risk factors statistics
| Introduction |
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Clinical Perspective see p 92
Information on circulating levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) may be used to refine estimates of cardiovascular risk stratification using newer methods of assessment.9–11 This protein has generated interest as a potentially important biomarker of inflammation and cardiovascular risk, and recommendations for testing with this biomarker were made by the American Heart Association and the Centers for Disease Control in 2003.12 We undertook analyses related to the development of both coronary disease and total CVD end points because there is growing interest in the prediction of total CVD as a vascular disease end point that is worthy of primary prevention; additionally, a recent Framingham publication has estimated risk of CVD as an initial vascular disease end point.13
With this background, we investigated the potential benefit of adding information on circulating levels of CRP and homocysteine to prediction equations that estimate vascular disease risk in a prospective study of middle-aged and older Framingham adults. We first analyzed the effects of these newer biomarkers using conventional assessment methods, and subsequently evaluated a newly described reclassification approach that used a multivariable model to predict an individuals risk of developing or not developing a vascular outcome.14
| Methods |
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During the clinic visit, information was obtained regarding cigarette smoking during the past year and medication use. Blood pressure after sitting for 5 minutes was measured using standardized methods.18 Phlebotomy took place under fasting conditions. Lipid determinations were made at the time of the examination in the Framingham Heart Study laboratory. Plasma cholesterol was measured according to the Lipid Research Clinics Program Protocol, and HDL-C levels were determined after precipitation of non-HDL lipoproteins with heparin-manganese.19 Aliquots were frozen at –20°C after the initial phlebotomy at the time of the baseline examination. In 2003, the previously unthawed specimens were thawed for measurement of high-sensitivity CRP and homocysteine. High-sensitivity CRP assays were performed in the Framingham laboratory using a previously described nephelometric method with Dade-Behring reagents.20 Homocysteine values were determined in the laboratory of Dr Selhub using high-pressure liquid chromatography as previously described.21
Logarithmic transformations were used for homocysteine and CRP for analyses with continuous variables to decrease the effect of extreme observations. The hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using a traditional Cox model that first evaluated age- and sex-adjusted effects, followed by a multivariable model that included the variables age, sex, cholesterol, HDL-C, systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, blood pressure treatment, and cigarette smoking. The discriminatory capability of traditional variables and the novel risk factors CRP and homocysteine were evaluated using c statistics as described previously.22,23 Similar analytic methods were used to test for the effects of 3 prespecified CRP categories (<1.00, 1 to 2.99,
3.00 mg/L) and tertiles of homocysteine on the risk of hard CHD and total CVD.
The effects of reclassification using CRP were assessed using recently published methods that estimated the net reclassification improvement (NRI),14 which expands and improves on previously published reclassification methods.23,24 The prediction model for each individual was reestimated with the information for the new factor included in the estimate. This method provides a more rigorous statistical approach to assess the improvement in reclassification by including new biomarker information into prediction models. The analyses used continuous variable information with evaluation of the effects on risk category reclassification for those cases and noncases during the follow-up interval. This approach separately analyzed the reclassification of persons who developed events and those who did not develop events. Reclassification to a higher risk group was considered upward movement/improvement in classification for those experiencing an event. On the other hand, reclassification downward was considered a failure for persons who developed an event. Conversely, among persons who did not experience an event, reclassification upward was considered disadvantageous, and reclassification downward was considered advantageous. Improvement in reclassification was estimated by taking the sum of differences in proportions of individuals reclassified upward minus the proportion reclassified downward for people who developed events and the proportion of individuals moving downward minus the proportion moving upward for those who did not develop events. Using this method, the overall reclassification sum is the NRI, and the statistical significance of the overall improvement is assessed with an asymptotic test, as described by Pencina et al.14 The follow-up experience over 12 years was adjusted to 10-year categories of risk (0% to 6%, 6% to 20%, >20% risk) identified by the National Cholesterol Education Program and other experts for the reclassification analysis.25,26 These estimates were made according to traditional variables (age, sex, systolic pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-C, diabetes mellitus, smoking status, and blood pressure therapy).
The authors had full access to and take full responsibility for the integrity of the data. All authors have read and agree to the manuscript as written.
| Results |
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As an exploratory analysis concerning effects of reclassification, we undertook a stepwise strategy that sequentially estimated the effects for several risk factors with the outcome of total CVD. We included age and sex as core factors and estimated the percent net reclassified and the c statistic for each variable added. For the addition of systolic blood pressure and treatment to the model, the percent net reclassification and the c statistic were 10.8% and 0.740, respectively; for the addition of lipids, 7.0% and 0.767, respectively; for the addition of smoking, 7.7% and 0.787, respectively; for the addition of diabetes, –0.5% and 0.795, respectively; and for the addition of log(CRP), 5.6% and 0.799, respectively. The order of adding the variables can affect the statistical significance of the contribution for each factor, and it is interesting that most factors add several percentage points to the reclassification index at the same time that modest increments in the c statistic are observed. The net reclassification effect for total CVD is identical to what we reported for the Figure 1 calculation of the net reclassification related to the multivariable model from Table 4.
| Discussion |
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Reclassification can be considered from a variety of vantage points, and the exact utility of the method is not clear at the present time. Differences in reclassification with CRP or other new variables can stem from a variety of sources. The choice and number of categories used and absolute event rates for the study participants are key sources of variation that can help to explain the differences, as well as the use of NRI, described by Pencina et al,14 as the performance measures. The NRI considers effects of upward, neutral, and downward reclassification of cases and noncases during follow-up, leading to a net reclassification that provides a more accurate estimate than that obtained with other approaches.
There is considerable interest in the development of effective strategies to identify persons at risk for CHD. Traditional risk factors such as age, sex, blood pressure, cholesterol, HDL-C, cigarette use, and diabetes mellitus have been used to screen persons at risk for CHD in the United States,29 Europe,30,31 and around the world.32 Other biomarkers have been tested in prospective cohort studies for effects in prediction models that have included traditional vascular disease risk models. As with our results, newer biomarkers such as CRP may be statistically related to the development of CHD but using the test for screening or clinical practice is less certain. The addition of newer biomarkers in a previous Framingham publication and results of other studies of CRP in risk prediction have generally shown modest effects in terms of their discriminatory ability to help identify new cases of CHD during follow-up, and there was minimal change in the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve with the new biomarker added.23,33
The Framingham offspring experience reported in this study reflects that of a suburban, community-based population sample that is largely white, and follow-up took place from the middle of the 1990s onward. At baseline, the participants often had relatively normal blood pressure levels, and during follow-up, blood pressure medication was common. The overall effects of baseline blood pressure on CHD risk has been previously reported as smaller in the Framingham offspring than in the first-generation Framingham cohort during the first 12 years of follow-up, and effects were largely related to diastolic blood pressure levels.34 Similarly, drug treatment for lipoprotein cholesterol abnormalities was uncommon at the 1990 index examination for the offspring included in this investigation. Additionally, the participants had a mean age of 46 years at baseline, their risk factor burden was relatively light concerning hypertension and diabetes mellitus, and the incidence of cardiovascular events during follow-up was relatively modest in comparison with older population groups. Different results may be obtained in other settings, especially in more recent times, when treatment of risk factors has become much more prevalent, and both excess adiposity and diabetes mellitus are more common.
The significant reclassification effects of CRP highlight the need to use risk factor assessment strategies that focus testing on those most likely to benefit. One possible approach would be a 2-step strategy that first would identify persons at intermediate risk for the vascular outcome via traditional risk factors and then further stratify risk based on follow-up testing.26,35 Additional research is needed regarding the effectiveness of 2-step approaches that use reclassification of risk after consideration of additional risk factor information, and cost-effectiveness strategies should provide even more information concerning the absolute degree of risk and costs to detect persons at higher risk.
Identifying persons at risk for CVD is a dynamic field, and newer tests and analytic strategies are constantly being evaluated to improve our ability to assess risk more accurately so that the most appropriate follow-up and care can be provided. Our findings in a cohort with a moderate proportion of persons at intermediate risk for CVD showed no improvement in the c statistic, but with a reclassification approach, we saw a net reclassification that was in the 5% to 10% range. There are many unanswered questions concerning estimation of cardiovascular risk that are related to discrimination and reclassification. The order in which variables are included in risk prediction equations can affect some of the results and interpretation of the findings. Intermediate risk is an arbitrary condition that will change as risk factors are more effectively controlled. Such changes alone will pose new challenges to researchers. Our analytic approach included traditional cardiovascular risk factors first and then evaluated the role of CRP as a new biomarker, but other analytic strategies are possible. We have a better understanding of how risk prediction works at the present time compared with the past, but much is left to be accomplished to improve the identification of persons who will later develop cardiovascular events.
| Acknowledgments |
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Sources of Funding
This study was supported by grant R01 HL073272 (to P.W.F.W.) from the Framingham Heart Study of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health and Boston University School of Medicine. This work was supported by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institutes Framingham Heart Study (contract N01 HC-25195).
Disclosures
None.
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| Footnotes |
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